Rated 1425 and 1553, these two produce a 20.6% / 23.5% / 55.9% split. USA holds both halves of the profile — 1.38 against 0.86 for scoring, 0.95 against 1.30 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
Point estimate: 1-2. Top of the distribution: USA, 55.9%. 128 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The scoreline spread is even — 1-2 on 9.6% leads, but only just. Expected goals 1.11-2.41. USA holds a 32.4-point edge on the next outcome. One recorded prior meeting: 2025, 2-1 in Friendlies. A single result carries no predictive load. Versus the 1500 seed: -75 and +53. Scorelines above 8%: 2. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 32.4% to 67.6%. Behind them are 12 and 9 rated matches. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. In absolute terms: Turkey 0.86/1.30, USA 1.38/0.95 on attack and defence. Between them, the away side holds the higher rating. The distribution runs from 55.9% down to 20.6%. A decisive result carries 76.5% against 23.5% for the draw. It ended 3-2.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Turkey: three wins and two defeats over five games; nine goals scored, four conceded. Latest: a 1-0 defeat at home to Paraguay on 20 June; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to FYR Macedonia on 1 June.
On 20 June, Paraguay faced Turkey in World Cup: Turkey lost 0-1 at home, having scored zero and conceded one. World Cup, 14 June brought an away meeting with Australia; Turkey lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded. Turkey visited Venezuela on 6 June (International Friendlies) and won 2-1; their goals totalled two, compared with one conceded. FYR Macedonia travelled to face Turkey (International Friendlies) on 1 June. For Turkey, the score was 4-0: four goals scored, zero allowed. 3-0 was Turkey's result against Hungary on 23 March 2025 (UEFA Nations League), playing away from home; Turkey won, with three scored to zero conceded.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Turkey 44th after two matches and zero points.
USA: three wins and two defeats over five games; ten goals scored, seven conceded. Latest: a 2-0 win at home to Australia on 19 June; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Paraguay on 13 June.
On 19 June, Australia faced USA in World Cup: USA won 2-0 at home, having scored two and conceded zero. World Cup, 13 June brought a home meeting with Paraguay; USA won 4-1, a return of four goals scored and one conceded. USA hosted Germany on 6 June (International Friendlies) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Senegal travelled to face USA (International Friendlies) on 31 May. For USA, the score was 3-2: three goals scored, two allowed. 0-2 was USA's result against Portugal on 31 March (International Friendlies), playing at home; USA lost, with zero scored to two conceded.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed USA 7th after two matches and six points.
After the match
Turkey edged past USA 3-2 at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles on 26 June 2026. Auston Trusty opened the scoring inside the first 3 minutes for USA, set up by Sebastian Berhalter, to make it 1-0. Arda Guler levelled it inside the first 10 minutes for Turkey, set up by Baris Yilmaz, to make it 1-1. Orkun Kökçü put Turkey in front in the 31st minute, set up by Evren Eren Elmalı, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, USA drew level through Sebastian Berhalter 49 minutes into the game to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Turkey restored the lead through Kaan Ayhan in the 98th minute, set up by Can Uzun, to make it 3-2. Sebastian Berhalter (19') was booked. Our current Elo ratings make USA clearly the stronger side, by 128 rating points over Turkey, even though it was Turkey who won this one. On current ratings our Elo-Poisson model gives Turkey only a 20.6% chance in this pairing, the least likely of the three outcomes. Turkey's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in the 2025 UEFA Nations League, the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. USA's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026 International Friendlies and the 2026 World Cup. The substitution total for Turkey was five. After coming on for Turkey in minute 84, Can Uzun provided an assist. Kaan Ayhan scored in minute 98 following entry for Turkey in the 88th minute. USA: one yellow card. USA made five changes. The scoring record shows one lead change. Turkey won after falling behind.