No separation at all — 33.8% / 27.4% / 38.9% across the three results.
Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. By percentile the separation is top 32.0% to top 49.1%. Top to bottom the spread is only 11.5 points. USA holds both halves of the profile — 1.15 against 1.00 for scoring, 1.06 against 1.08 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 10.7% leads, but only just. The USA figure is drawn from 5 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. Global standing: 2184 and 1422 of 4,449. Expected goals 1.44-1.68. They are 762 places apart on the global list. Scorelines above 8%: 2. USA holds a 5.1-point edge on the next outcome. One prior meeting exists: 2025, 2-1 in Friendlies. A single result carries no predictive load. A decisive result carries 72.7% against 27.4% for the draw. In absolute terms: Turkey 1.00/1.08, USA 1.15/1.06 on attack and defence. It ended 3-2. Top of the distribution: USA, 38.9%. 18 points separate the two ratings — a narrow margin.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.