USA holds both halves of the profile — 1.38 against 0.93 for scoring, 0.95 against 1.02 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. On rating it is 1553 against 1495, which the model resolves to 55.1% / 23.7% / 21.2%.
The leading outcome clears the second by 31.4 points. It ended 2-0. Most and least likely outcomes are 33.9 points apart. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Rating separation comes to 58 points. Worth noting the base: only 6 rated matches sit behind Australia's number. Its point estimate is 2-1. The model's expected-goals figures are 2.08 and 1.18. Raw profiles are 1.38 and 0.95 against 0.93 and 1.02. The model's preferred outcome is USA at 55.1%. Higher rating: the home side. The higher-rated side expects 67.0% of the points; the other side 33.0%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +53 and -5. 76.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 2-1 on 9.8%. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2025, 2-1 in Friendlies.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
USA came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring ten goals and conceding 12. On 13 June, USA recorded a 4-1 win hosting Paraguay.
The 13 June fixture (World Cup) paired USA with Paraguay. USA won 4-1 at home, netting four goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Germany (International Friendlies), USA finished 1-2 on 6 June. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 31 May: USA won 3-2 against Senegal at home in International Friendlies, scoring three goals and allowing two. Against Portugal in International Friendlies, USA scored zero and conceded two on 31 March; the at home result was 0-2. USA's at home game on 28 March (International Friendlies) ended 2-5 against Belgium, with two goals for and five against.
USA stood 6th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with three points from one match.
Australia came into the game with two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding four. On 14 June, Australia recorded a 2-0 win hosting Turkey; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Indonesia on 28 January 2024.
Turkey travelled to face Australia (World Cup) on 14 June. For Australia, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed. 1-1 was Australia's result against Switzerland on 6 June (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Australia drew, with one scored to one conceded. The 31 May fixture (International Friendlies) paired Australia with Mexico. Australia lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Korea Republic (AFC Asian Cup), Australia finished 1-2 on 2 February 2024. Their score comprised one goal, against two from the opposition. 28 January 2024: Australia won 4-0 against Indonesia at home in AFC Asian Cup, scoring four goals and allowing zero.
Australia stood 13th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with three points from one match.
After the match
USA beat Australia 2-0 at Lumen Field, Seattle on 19 June 2026. Cameron Burgess (an own goal) opened the scoring inside the first 11 minutes for USA to make it 1-0. Alex Freeman added to the tally in the 43rd minute for USA to make it 2-0. 7 players were booked, among them Jordan Bos (16'), Alessandro Circati (32'), Miles Robinson (56'), Jacob Italiano (89'), Harry Souttar (89') and Folarin Balogun (89'). USA's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 55.1% for a win in this pairing. USA's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026 International Friendlies and the 2026 World Cup. three yellow cards went to USA. The substitution total for USA was five. The card tally for Australia was four yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Australia. USA kept their opponents scoreless.