Honours split: 1.15 forward for USA, 0.90 back for Australia. On rating it is 1504 against 1510, which the model resolves to 45.5% / 25.9% / 28.6%.
The leading outcome clears the second by 16.9 points. It ended 2-0. Most and least likely outcomes are 19.6 points apart. 3 scorelines clear 8% individually. Rating separation comes to 6 points. Worth noting the base: only 4 rated matches sit behind Australia's number. Its point estimate is 1-1. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.55 and 1.29. Raw profiles are 1.15 and 1.06 against 0.90 and 0.90. The model's preferred outcome is USA at 45.5%. A 154-place difference in ranking. The higher-percentile side clears the top 28.5%; the other the top 32.0%. In the global table that is 1422 and 1268 out of 4,449 rated teams. 74.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.7%. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2025, 2-1 in Friendlies.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.