Too close to call: 36.4% / 27.9% / 35.7%, top outcome 36.4%.
The two halves pull apart — Turkey better going forward at 1.00, Paraguay tighter at the back on 0.96. Someone wins 72.1% of the time by this model. Ranked against every team the model rates, they sit 2184th and 2412th of 4,449. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. The ranking gap is 228 positions. By percentile the separation is top 49.1% to top 54.2%. Turkey carries the largest share, 36.4%. Attack/defence pairs: 1.00/1.08 and 0.85/0.96. Result on the day: 0-1. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. A 8.5-point range covers every outcome here. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.7% leads, but only just. Rating separation comes to 3 points. Only 5 rated matches back the Paraguay figure. A 0.7-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. Expected goals sit at 1.30 against 1.24.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.