Paraguay holds both halves of the profile — 0.88 against 0.86 for scoring, 0.85 against 1.30 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. On rating it is 1425 against 1505, which the model resolves to 26.1% / 25.2% / 48.7%.
The scoreline spread is even — 0-1 on 12.3% leads, but only just. Attack/defence pairs: 0.86/1.30 and 0.88/0.85. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Paraguay carries the largest share, 48.7%. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Rating separation comes to 80 points. Someone wins 74.8% of the time by this model. The away side is rated higher. The three results cover 23.5 points. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -75 and +5. Ratings shown are post-fixture — one current value is kept per team. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 0-1. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 38.7% to 61.3%. Expected goals sit at 0.99 against 1.53. Result on the day: 0-1. Paraguay holds a 22.6-point edge on the next outcome. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 12 and 7 matches.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Turkey's previous five results comprised four wins and one defeat. Their goal totals were 12 scored and 4 conceded. Australia were their latest opponents, away on 14 June: a 2-0 defeat; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to FYR Macedonia on 1 June.
0-2 was Turkey's result against Australia on 14 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Turkey lost, with zero scored to two conceded. The 6 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Turkey with Venezuela. Turkey won 2-1 away from home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against FYR Macedonia (International Friendlies), Turkey finished 4-0 on 1 June. Their score comprised four goals, against zero from the opposition. 23 March 2025: Turkey won 3-0 against Hungary away from home in UEFA Nations League, scoring three goals and allowing zero. Against Hungary in UEFA Nations League, Turkey scored three and conceded one on 20 March 2025; the at home result was 3-1.
zero points in one match put Turkey 42nd in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
eight goals for and eight against accompanied Paraguay's two wins and three defeats across five outings. A 4-1 defeat away to USA (13 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Nicaragua on 5 June.
13 June: Paraguay lost 1-4 against USA away from home in World Cup, scoring one goal and allowing four. Against Nicaragua in International Friendlies, Paraguay scored four and conceded zero on 5 June; the at home result was 4-0. Paraguay's away from home game on 31 March (International Friendlies) ended 1-2 against Morocco, with one goal for and two against. On 27 March, Greece faced Paraguay in International Friendlies: Paraguay won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. Copa America, 3 July 2024 brought an away meeting with Costa Rica; Paraguay lost 1-2, a return of one goal scored and two conceded.
Paraguay stood 43rd in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with zero points from one match.
After the match
Paraguay edged past Turkey 1-0 at Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area on 20 June 2026. Matías Galarza opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for Paraguay, set up by Julio Enciso, to make it 1-0. Miguel Almirón (45') was sent off. Matías Galarza (4'), Vincenzo Montella (63') and Evren Eren Elmalı (71') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Paraguay are 80 points stronger than Turkey. Turkey's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in the 2025 UEFA Nations League, the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 2.17 to 0.32. two yellow cards went to Turkey. Turkey: five substitutions. Evren Eren Elmalı, on in the 71st minute, was booked. Paraguay picked up one yellow card and one red card. The substitution total for Paraguay was five. Paraguay conceded no goals.