The model declines to call this one. 1510 plays 1486, and the three-way split of 39.8% / 27.2% / 33.0% is about as close to undecided as its output gets.
By percentile the separation is top 28.5% to top 49.1%. Attack/defence pairs: 0.90/0.90 and 1.00/1.08. A 6.8-point margin separates the top two outcomes. A decisive result carries 72.8% against 27.2% for the draw. Each side owns one half of the argument — Turkey the scoring rate at 1.00, Australia the conceding rate at 0.90. The three results cover 12.6 points. The model's preferred outcome is Australia at 39.8%. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 12.7% — not a strong call. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Ranked against every team the model rates, they sit 1268th and 2184th of 4,449. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Distance between the ratings: 24 points, narrow on this scale. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.31 and 1.22. The tie closed out 2-0. 916 places separate them in the global order. Only 4 rated matches back the Australia figure. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.