1495 plays 1425; the model splits it 47.3% / 25.5% / 27.2%. There is no trade-off to weigh: Australia scores at the higher rate (0.93 to 0.86) and concedes at the lower (1.02 to 1.30).
Distance between the ratings: 70 points, moderate on this scale. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Attack/defence pairs: 0.93/1.02 and 0.86/1.30. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.6% — not a strong call. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. A decisive result carries 74.5% against 25.5% for the draw. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.62 and 1.19. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 59.9% to 40.1%. Only 6 rated matches back the Australia figure. The model's preferred outcome is Australia at 47.3%. The tie closed out 2-0. A 20.1-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -5 and -75. The three results cover 21.8 points. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
seven goals for and five against accompanied Australia's one win, two draws and two defeats across five outings. A 1-1 draw away to Switzerland (6 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to Indonesia on 28 January 2024.
The 6 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Australia with Switzerland. Australia drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing away from home against Mexico (International Friendlies), Australia finished 0-1 on 31 May. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 2 February 2024: Australia lost 1-2 against Korea Republic at home in AFC Asian Cup, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against Indonesia in AFC Asian Cup, Australia scored four and conceded zero on 28 January 2024; the at home result was 4-0. Australia's at home game on 23 January 2024 (AFC Asian Cup) ended 1-1 against Uzbekistan, with one goal for and one against.
13 goals for and five against accompanied Turkey's four wins and one defeat across five outings. A 2-1 win away to Venezuela (6 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to FYR Macedonia on 1 June.
The 6 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Turkey with Venezuela. Turkey won 2-1 away from home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against FYR Macedonia (International Friendlies), Turkey finished 4-0 on 1 June. Their score comprised four goals, against zero from the opposition. 23 March 2025: Turkey won 3-0 against Hungary away from home in UEFA Nations League, scoring three goals and allowing zero. Against Hungary in UEFA Nations League, Turkey scored three and conceded one on 20 March 2025; the at home result was 3-1. Turkey's away from home game on 19 November 2024 (UEFA Nations League) ended 1-3 against Montenegro, with one goal for and three against.
After the match
Australia beat Turkey 2-0 at BC Place, Vancouver on 14 June 2026. Nestor Irankunda opened the scoring in the 27th minute for Australia, set up by Paul Okon-Engstler, to make it 1-0. Connor Metcalfe added to the tally 75 minutes into the game for Australia to make it 2-0. Yunus Akgün (86') was booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Australia are 70 points stronger than Turkey. Turkey's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive defeats in the 2025 UEFA Nations League, the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.18 to 1.36. Australia made five changes. The card tally for Turkey was one yellow card. Turkey made five changes. Yunus Akgün was booked following entry for Turkey in the 62nd minute. Australia finished with a clean sheet.