They have 4 previous meetings dating to 1930, 7-1 on goals. Last time: 2025, 2-1 in Friendlies. The live ratings are 1504 and 1483, giving 49.6% / 25.0% / 25.4%.
What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Outcomes span 24.6 points. Scorelines above 8%: 3. Only 5 rated matches back the USA figure. Final score: 4-1. Its point estimate is 1-1. Top 32.0% against top 54.2% on percentile. A 21-point spread sits between the two figures. In the global table that is 1422 and 2412 out of 4,449 rated teams. Someone wins 75.0% of the time by this model. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.5%. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.64 and 1.22. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.15 to 0.85 says USA, 0.96 to 1.06 says Paraguay. USA sits 24.2 points above the next most likely result. 990 places separate them in the global order. 49.6% goes to USA, the model's lean. Raw profiles are 1.15 and 1.06 against 0.85 and 0.96.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.