On file: 4 previous meetings dating to 1930, 7-1 on goals. Last time: 2025, 2-1 in Friendlies. The live ratings are 1553 and 1505, giving 53.7% / 24.0% / 22.2%.
What is quoted is today's rating, not the figure carried into kickoff. Outcomes span 31.5 points. Scorelines above 8%: 4. USA sits 29.7 points above the next most likely result. Final score: 4-1. Behind them are 9 and 7 rated matches. Expected shares 65.7% against 34.3% on Elo. A 48-point spread sits between the two figures. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +53 and +5. Someone wins 75.9% of the time by this model. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 11.2%. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.73 and 1.12. Attack and defence disagree about who is favoured: 1.38 to 0.88 says USA, 0.85 to 0.95 says Paraguay. Its point estimate is 1-1. The higher rating belongs to the home side. 53.7% goes to USA, the model's lean. Raw profiles are 1.38 and 0.95 against 0.88 and 0.85.
From our elo-poisson-v1 model. Analysis only, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
USA: one win and four defeats over five games; seven goals scored, 13 conceded. Latest: a 2-1 defeat at home to Germany on 6 June.
On 6 June, Germany faced USA in International Friendlies: USA lost 1-2 at home, having scored one and conceded two. International Friendlies, 31 May brought a home meeting with Senegal; USA won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded. USA hosted Portugal on 31 March (International Friendlies) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. Belgium travelled to face USA (International Friendlies) on 28 March. For USA, the score was 2-5: two goals scored, five allowed. 1-2 was USA's result against Mexico on 6 July 2025 (CONCACAF Gold Cup), playing at home; USA lost, with one scored to two conceded.
Paraguay came into the game with two wins and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding eight. On 5 June, Paraguay recorded a 4-0 win hosting Nicaragua.
5 June: Paraguay won 4-0 against Nicaragua at home in International Friendlies, scoring four goals and allowing zero. Against Morocco in International Friendlies, Paraguay scored one and conceded two on 31 March; the away from home result was 1-2. Paraguay's away from home game on 27 March (International Friendlies) ended 1-0 against Greece, with one goal for and zero against. On 3 July 2024, Costa Rica faced Paraguay in Copa America: Paraguay lost 1-2 away from home, having scored one and conceded two. Copa America, 29 June 2024 brought a home meeting with Brazil; Paraguay lost 1-4, a return of one goal scored and four conceded.
The last recorded meeting was a 1-0 home win for USA on 11 June 2016.
After the match
USA comfortably beat Paraguay 4-1 at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles on 13 June 2026. Damian Bobadilla (an own goal) opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for USA to make it 1-0. Folarin Balogun added to the tally in the 31st minute for USA, set up by Christian Pulisic, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, USA extended the lead through Folarin Balogun 50 minutes into the game to make it 3-0. Mauricio got one back 73 minutes into the game for Paraguay, set up by Julio Enciso, to make it 1-3. Gio Reyna scored the 5th goal for USA in the 98th minute as they extended the lead to make it 4-1. Juan Cáceres (9'), Miguel Almirón (53'), Tyler Adams (59'), Diego Gómez (79'), Alex Arce (88') and Júnior Alonso (90') were booked. On current ratings the model puts USA at around 1.73 gols in this pairing; they scored 4 here. USA's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026 International Friendlies and the 2026 World Cup. USA: one yellow card. USA made four changes. Gio Reyna scored in minute 98 following entry for USA in the 82nd minute. five yellow cards went to Paraguay. Paraguay: five substitutions. Mauricio entered for Paraguay at 46 minutes and later scored in minute 73. After coming on for Paraguay in minute 62, Alex Arce was booked.