The caveat comes first here. Haiti has only 3 rated matches behind their number, so while the model returns 1571 against 1403 and a 61.4% / 22.1% / 16.5% split, that precision is not earned yet.
77.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.3% — not a strong call. Top 12.3% against top 94.5% on percentile. Result on the day: 4-2. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. 3,657 places separate them in the global order. Attack/defence pairs: 1.07/0.92 and 0.92/1.17. The two ratings differ by 168 points. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Neither component contradicts the other: Morocco leads 1.07-0.92 forward and 0.92-1.17 back. Morocco carries the largest share, 61.4%. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.69 and 1.15. Of the 4,449 teams carrying a rating, these two are 549th and 4206th. Haiti's side of that rests on 3 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Between best and worst outcome there is 44.9 points of daylight.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.