Rated 1595 and 1451, these two produce a 58.1% / 23.0% / 19.0% split. Neither component contradicts the other: Morocco leads 1.09-1.07 forward and 0.81-1.12 back.
Attack/defence pairs: 1.09/0.81 and 1.07/1.12. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.66 and 1.18. The two ratings differ by 144 points. Between best and worst outcome there is 39.1 points of daylight. Expected shares 69.6% against 30.4% on Elo. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Result on the day: 4-2. Morocco carries the largest share, 58.1%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 9 and 7 matches. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 11.5% — not a strong call. 77.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +95 and -49. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Morocco holds a 35.1-point edge on the next outcome. Rounding the goal expectations gives a predicted 1-1. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Morocco's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 12 scored and 2 conceded, keeping three clean sheets, with no defeats. Scotland were their latest opponents, away on 19 June: a 1-0 win; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Burundi on 26 May.
1-0 was Morocco's result against Scotland on 19 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Morocco won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 13 June fixture (World Cup) paired Morocco with Brazil. Morocco drew 1-1 away from home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing at home against Norway (International Friendlies), Morocco finished 1-1 on 7 June. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 2 June: Morocco won 4-0 against Madagascar at home in International Friendlies, scoring four goals and allowing zero. Against Burundi in International Friendlies, Morocco scored five and conceded zero on 26 May; the at home result was 5-0.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Morocco 17th after two matches and four points.
Haiti came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring six goals and conceding seven. On 20 June, Haiti recorded a 3-0 defeat visiting Brazil; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to New Zealand on 3 June.
Brazil hosted Haiti (World Cup) on 20 June. For Haiti, the score was 0-3: zero goals scored, three allowed. 0-1 was Haiti's result against Scotland on 14 June (World Cup), playing at home; Haiti lost, with zero scored to one conceded. The 6 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Haiti with Peru. Haiti lost 1-2 at home, netting one goal while conceding two. Playing at home against New Zealand (International Friendlies), Haiti finished 4-0 on 3 June. Their score comprised four goals, against zero from the opposition. 31 March: Haiti drew 1-1 against Iceland at home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing one.
Haiti stood 45th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with zero points from two matches.
After the match
Morocco beat Haiti 4-2 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta on 24 June 2026. Lenny Joseph opened the scoring inside the first 10 minutes for Haiti, set up by Jean-Kevin Duverne, to make it 1-0. Achraf Hakimi levelled it in the 39th minute for Morocco, set up by Bilal El Khannouss, to make it 1-1. Haiti regained the lead through Wilson Isidor in the 43rd minute, set up by Jean-Kevin Duverne, to make it 2-1. With the 4th goal, Morocco drew level through Ismael Saibari 46 minutes into the game, set up by Achraf Hakimi, to make it 2-2. With the 5th goal, Morocco took the lead through Soufiane Rahimi 78 minutes into the game, set up by Chadi Riad, to make it 3-2. Gessime Yassine added to the tally late on, in the 89th minute for Morocco, set up by Soufiane Rahimi, to make it 4-2. Duckens Nazon (79'), Johny Placide (79') and Josué Casimir (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Morocco 144 points stronger than Haiti. Morocco's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 58.1% for a win in this pairing. On current ratings the model puts Morocco at around 1.66 gols in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Expected goals put the gap at 3.76 to 0.67. five changes were recorded for Morocco. Gessime Yassine scored in minute 89 following entry for Morocco in the 70th minute. Soufiane Rahimi, on in the 70th minute, scored in minute 78 and provided an assist. Haiti picked up three yellow cards. Haiti: four substitutions. After coming on for Haiti in minute 67, Duckens Nazon was booked. Across the goals, the lead switched one time. After trailing, Morocco secured the win.