On file: 4 previous meetings dating to 1974, 2-7 on goals. Last time: 1998, 1-2 in World Cup. The present numbers are 1419 against 1588, and the model turns that into 16.3% / 22.1% / 61.6%.
Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at -81 and +88. The match finished 0-3. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Spread across the three results is 45.3 points. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Raw profiles are 0.75 and 1.06 against 1.32 and 0.87. A 39.5-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 10 and 8 matches. Brazil holds both halves of the profile — 1.32 against 0.75 for scoring, 0.87 against 1.06 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. 77.9% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Higher rating: the away side. No scoreline stands out; 0-1 only leads on 11.8%. Brazil carries the largest share, 61.6%. Expected shares 27.4% against 72.6% on Elo. Its point estimate is 0-1. Expected goals come out at 0.88 to 1.90. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
Scotland came into the game with three wins and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring nine goals and conceding three. A 1-0 defeat at home to Morocco (19 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Bolivia on 6 June.
Morocco travelled to face Scotland (World Cup) on 19 June. For Scotland, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 1-0 was Scotland's result against Haiti on 14 June (World Cup), playing away from home; Scotland won, with one scored to zero conceded. The 6 June fixture (International Friendlies) paired Scotland with Bolivia. Scotland won 4-0 away from home, netting four goals while conceding zero. Playing at home against Curaçao (International Friendlies), Scotland finished 4-1 on 30 May. Their score comprised four goals, against one from the opposition. 31 March: Scotland lost 0-1 against Ivory Coast at home in International Friendlies, scoring zero goals and allowing one.
Scotland: 25th, three points, two matches in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
Brazil: four wins and one draw over five games; 15 goals scored, five conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 3-0 win at home to Haiti on 20 June; their biggest win in that spell was 6-2 at home to Panama on 31 May.
Brazil hosted Haiti on 20 June (World Cup) and won 3-0; their goals totalled three, compared with zero conceded. Morocco travelled to face Brazil (World Cup) on 13 June. For Brazil, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 2-1 was Brazil's result against Egypt on 6 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; Brazil won, with two scored to one conceded. The 31 May fixture (International Friendlies) paired Brazil with Panama. Brazil won 6-2 at home, netting six goals while conceding two. Playing at home against Croatia (International Friendlies), Brazil finished 3-1 on 1 April. Their score comprised three goals, against one from the opposition.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Brazil 14th after two matches and four points.
After the match
Brazil comfortably beat Scotland 3-0 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami on 24 June 2026. Vinicius Junior opened the scoring inside the first 7 minutes for Brazil to make it 1-0. Vinicius Junior added to the tally 48 minutes into the game for Brazil, set up by Bruno Guimarães, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Brazil extended the lead through Matheus Cunha 60 minutes into the game, set up by Bruno Guimarães, to make it 3-0. Danilo Luiz da Silva (62'), Fabinho (82') and Ryan Christie (89') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Brazil 169 points stronger than Scotland. Brazil won; current ratings also favour them in this pairing, with a model probability of 61.6%. Expected goals put the gap at 1.04 to 4.33. Scotland picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Scotland was five. After coming on for Scotland in minute 81, Ryan Christie was booked. two yellow cards went to Brazil. Brazil: five substitutions. Fabinho entered for Brazil at 66 minutes and later was booked. Brazil kept their opponents scoreless.