They have 4 previous meetings dating to 1974, 2-7 on goals. Last time: 1998, 1-2 in World Cup. The present numbers are 1416 against 1566, and the model turns that into 18.3% / 22.7% / 59.0%.
Of the 4,449 teams carrying a rating, these two are 4110th and 594th. The match finished 0-3. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Spread across the three results is 40.7 points. The Brazil figure is drawn from 5 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. Raw profiles are 0.80 and 1.10 against 1.13 and 0.90. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Its point estimate is 0-1. Brazil holds both halves of the profile — 1.13 against 0.80 for scoring, 0.90 against 1.10 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one. 77.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. A 3,516-place difference in ranking. No scoreline stands out; 0-1 only leads on 12.0%. Brazil carries the largest share, 59.0%. Top 13.4% against top 92.4% on percentile. A 36.3-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Expected goals come out at 0.97 to 1.67. Ratings quoted are live and already include this result.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.