A 176-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 15.7% / 21.8% / 62.5% distribution.
Flat distribution — 0-1 tops it at just 14.3%. The gap between first and second outcome is 40.7 points, Morocco ahead of the draw. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. Measured from the model's 1500 starting point, the two ratings read -81 and +95. They have met once on record — 1998, 0-3 in World Cup, which is too little history to weigh. Higher rating: the away side. Morocco carries the largest share, 62.5%. Morocco's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 73.4%. Point estimate: 0-1. Morocco is ahead on each half — 1.09 to 0.75 in attack, 0.81 to 1.06 in defence. Spread across the three results is 46.8 points. Played and finished 0-1. A 176-point difference on the rating scale. 78.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Expected goals 0.82-1.57. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 10 and 9 matches. Attack/defence pairs: 0.75/1.06 and 1.09/0.81.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Scotland's previous five results comprised three wins and two defeats. Their goal totals were 9 scored and 3 conceded. Latest: a 1-0 win away to Haiti on 14 June; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 away to Bolivia on 6 June.
On 14 June, Haiti faced Scotland in World Cup: Scotland won 1-0 away from home, having scored one and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 6 June brought an away meeting with Bolivia; Scotland won 4-0, a return of four goals scored and zero conceded. Scotland hosted Curaçao on 30 May (International Friendlies) and won 4-1; their goals totalled four, compared with one conceded. Ivory Coast travelled to face Scotland (International Friendlies) on 31 March. For Scotland, the score was 0-1: zero goals scored, one allowed. 0-1 was Scotland's result against Japan on 28 March (International Friendlies), playing at home; Scotland lost, with zero scored to one conceded.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Scotland 13th after one match and three points.
Morocco: three wins and two draws over five games; 13 goals scored, three conceded, unbeaten. Latest: a 1-1 draw away to Brazil on 13 June; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Burundi on 26 May.
Playing away from home against Brazil (World Cup), Morocco finished 1-1 on 13 June. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 7 June: Morocco drew 1-1 against Norway at home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Madagascar in International Friendlies, Morocco scored four and conceded zero on 2 June; the at home result was 4-0. Morocco's at home game on 26 May (International Friendlies) ended 5-0 against Burundi, with five goals for and zero against. On 31 March, Paraguay faced Morocco in International Friendlies: Morocco won 2-1 at home, having scored two and conceded one.
one point in one match put Morocco 22nd in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
After the match
Morocco edged past Scotland 1-0 at Gillette Stadium, Boston on 19 June 2026. Ismael Saibari opened the scoring inside the first 2 minutes for Morocco, set up by Brahim Diaz, to make it 1-0. Issa Diop (23'), Andrew Robertson (65') and Anthony Ralston (90') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Morocco 176 points stronger than Scotland. 62.5% is Morocco's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Scotland: two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Scotland. Anthony Ralston entered for Scotland at 88 minutes and later was booked. Morocco: one yellow card. Morocco made four changes. Morocco finished with a clean sheet.