A 155-point rating chasm sits between these two, producing a 17.7% / 22.6% / 59.7% distribution.
Flat distribution — 0-1 tops it at just 12.0%. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. A 6-match base for Scotland. Ranked against every team the model rates, they sit 4110th and 549th of 4,449. They have met once on record — 1998, 0-3 in World Cup, which is too little history to weigh. A 3,561-place difference in ranking. Morocco carries the largest share, 59.7%. Morocco is the higher-percentile side, top 12.3% against top 92.4%. The gap between first and second outcome is 37.1 points, Morocco ahead of the draw. Morocco is ahead on each half — 1.07 to 0.80 in attack, 0.92 to 1.10 in defence. Spread across the three results is 42.0 points. Played and finished 0-1. A 155-point difference on the rating scale. 77.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Expected goals 0.99-1.59. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Point estimate: 0-1. Attack/defence pairs: 0.80/1.10 and 1.07/0.92.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.