Sample size is the first thing to note. Haiti carries 3 rated matches, so while the split reads 60.7% / 22.3% / 17.0% off ratings of 1566 and 1403, the confidence is thin.
A 3,612-place difference in ranking. A 163-point difference on the rating scale. The four component numbers read 1.13, 0.90, 0.92, 1.17. Between best and worst outcome there is 43.7 points of daylight. First to second is a 38.4-point step, Brazil over the draw. The model gives 77.7% to someone winning. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Of the 4,449 teams carrying a rating, these two are 594th and 4206th. Haiti's side of that rests on 3 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 11.0% leads, but only just. Expected goals 1.78-1.12. 60.7% goes to Brazil, the model's lean. Rounded, that is 1-1. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2016, 7-1 in Copa America. Played and finished 3-0. Percentile-wise: top 13.4% versus top 94.5%. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.