A 57.1% / 23.2% / 19.7% split off ratings of 1588 and 1451. Both components point the same way, toward Brazil: 1.32 to 1.07 going forward, 0.87 to 1.12 going back.
2 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Played and finished 3-0. Higher rating: the home side. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. With 8 and 7 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. The four component numbers read 1.32, 0.87, 1.07, 1.12. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 9.7% leads, but only just. Rounded, that is 1-1. Just one prior encounter is on file — 2016, 7-1 in Copa America. First to second is a 33.9-point step, Brazil over the draw. Expected goals 1.99-1.26. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +88 and -49. The model gives 76.8% to someone winning. Elo expected shares: 68.8% and 31.2%. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. Between best and worst outcome there is 37.4 points of daylight. A 137-point difference on the rating scale. 57.1% goes to Brazil, the model's lean.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
Brazil's previous five results comprised three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal totals were 13 scored and 7 conceded. Morocco were their latest opponents, at home on 13 June: a 1-1 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 6-2 at home to Panama on 31 May.
Against Morocco in World Cup, Brazil scored one and conceded one on 13 June; the at home result was 1-1. Brazil's at home game on 6 June (International Friendlies) ended 2-1 against Egypt, with two goals for and one against. On 31 May, Panama faced Brazil in International Friendlies: Brazil won 6-2 at home, having scored six and conceded two. International Friendlies, 1 April brought a home meeting with Croatia; Brazil won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Brazil hosted France on 26 March (International Friendlies) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded.
one point in one match put Brazil 23rd in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
Haiti: one win, one draw and three defeats over five games; six goals scored, five conceded. Latest: a 1-0 defeat at home to Scotland on 14 June; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to New Zealand on 3 June.
Playing at home against Scotland (World Cup), Haiti finished 0-1 on 14 June. Their score comprised zero goals, against one from the opposition. 6 June: Haiti lost 1-2 against Peru at home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing two. Against New Zealand in International Friendlies, Haiti scored four and conceded zero on 3 June; the at home result was 4-0. Haiti's at home game on 31 March (International Friendlies) ended 1-1 against Iceland, with one goal for and one against. On 29 March, Tunisia faced Haiti in International Friendlies: Haiti lost 0-1 at home, having scored zero and conceded one.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Haiti 36th after one match and zero points.
The last recorded meeting was a 7-1 home win for Brazil on 8 June 2016.
After the match
Brazil comfortably beat Haiti 3-0 at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia on 20 June 2026. Matheus Cunha opened the scoring in the 23rd minute for Brazil, set up by Vinicius Junior, to make it 1-0. Matheus Cunha added to the tally in the 36th minute for Brazil, set up by Vinicius Junior, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Brazil extended the lead through Vinicius Junior 48 minutes into the game, set up by Lucas Paquetá, to make it 3-0. Carlens Arcus (4'), Frantzdy Pierrot (45'), Douglas Santos (65') and Danley Jean Jacques (72') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Brazil 137 points stronger than Haiti. Brazil: 57.1% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. Expected goals put the gap at 1.75 to 0.23. Brazil picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Brazil was five. The card tally for Haiti was three yellow cards. four changes were recorded for Haiti. Brazil conceded no goals.