3 rated matches is a thin base for Haiti; the model still returns 34.4% / 27.6% / 38.0%.
A 96-place difference in ranking. Scotland carries the largest share, 38.0%. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Attack/defence pairs: 0.92/1.17 and 0.80/1.10. Scotland is the higher-percentile side, top 92.4% against top 94.5%. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Haiti: only 3 rated matches. Goal expectation splits 1.37 to 1.26. A 10.4-point range covers every outcome here. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Neither side holds both halves — Haiti scores at 0.92, Scotland concedes at 1.10. 72.4% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Worldwide they stand at 4206 and 4110 among 4,449 rated sides. Rating separation comes to 13 points. The leading two outcomes sit 3.6 points apart, which is not a real preference. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 12.5%. Final score: 0-1.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.