Neither win dominates this distribution — the draw takes 26.8% against 41.3% and 31.9%.
Higher rating: the home side. Haiti carries the largest share, 41.3%. First to second is a 9.4-point step, Haiti over Scotland. Attack/defence pairs: 1.07/1.12 and 0.75/1.06. Haiti's expected share on the Elo curve comes to 54.6%. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Goal expectation splits 1.54 to 1.13. Between best and worst outcome there is 14.5 points of daylight. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Neither side holds both halves — Haiti scores at 1.07, Scotland concedes at 1.06. 73.2% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at -49 and -81. Rating separation comes to 32 points. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. The ratings draw on 7 and 10 rated matches, enough to be treated as settled. Outcomes are scattered: top of the list is 1-1 at 12.0%. Final score: 0-1.
Derived from elo-poisson-v1 on full history — published as analysis, not as tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Haiti came into the game with one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five outings, scoring seven goals and conceding six. On 6 June, Haiti recorded a 2-1 defeat hosting Peru; their biggest win in that spell was 4-0 at home to New Zealand on 3 June.
Haiti's at home game on 6 June (International Friendlies) ended 1-2 against Peru, with one goal for and two against. On 3 June, New Zealand faced Haiti in International Friendlies: Haiti won 4-0 at home, having scored four and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 31 March brought a home meeting with Iceland; Haiti drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Haiti hosted Tunisia on 29 March (International Friendlies) and lost 0-1; their goals totalled zero, compared with one conceded. USA hosted Haiti (CONCACAF Gold Cup) on 22 June 2025. For Haiti, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed.
Scotland: two wins and three defeats over five games; eight goals scored, six conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Bolivia were their latest opponents, away on 6 June: a 4-0 win.
Playing away from home against Bolivia (International Friendlies), Scotland finished 4-0 on 6 June. Their score comprised four goals, against zero from the opposition. 30 May: Scotland won 4-1 against Curaçao at home in International Friendlies, scoring four goals and allowing one. Against Ivory Coast in International Friendlies, Scotland scored zero and conceded one on 31 March; the at home result was 0-1. Scotland's at home game on 28 March (International Friendlies) ended 0-1 against Japan, with zero goals for and one against. On 23 March 2025, Greece faced Scotland in UEFA Nations League: Scotland lost 0-3 at home, having scored zero and conceded three.
After the match
Scotland edged past Haiti 1-0 at Gillette Stadium, Boston on 14 June 2026. John McGinn opened the scoring in the 28th minute for Scotland to make it 1-0. Jean-Ricner Bellegarde (39'), Aaron Hickey (46'), Findlay Curtis (90') and Kenny McLean (90') were booked. Our current Elo ratings make Haiti slightly the stronger side, by 32 rating points over Scotland, even though it was Scotland who won this one. Haiti picked up one yellow card. Haiti: three substitutions. The card tally for Scotland was three yellow cards. Scotland made five changes. Findlay Curtis was booked following entry for Scotland in the 82nd minute. Kenny McLean, on in the 82nd minute, was booked. Scotland finished with a clean sheet.