On record: 2 meetings from 1998, 4-2 on aggregate, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2023, 1-2 in Friendlies. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1588 and 1595 — 7 points — for a 35.2% / 27.8% / 37.1% split.
Expected goals sit at 1.45 against 1.29. The match finished 1-1. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 7 points. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. A decisive result carries 72.3% against 27.8% for the draw. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 8 and 9 rated matches respectively. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. The edge is split: Brazil scores at the higher rate (1.32 to 1.09), Morocco concedes at the lower (0.81 to 0.87). A 1.9-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +88 and +95. 37.1% goes to Morocco, the model's lean. On the Elo curve they expect 49.0% and 51.0% of the points. All three results are bunched inside 9.3 points.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.
Match Report
Before the match
12 goals for and six against accompanied Brazil's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. A 2-1 win at home to Egypt (6 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 6-2 at home to Panama on 31 May.
Brazil's at home game on 6 June (International Friendlies) ended 2-1 against Egypt, with two goals for and one against. On 31 May, Panama faced Brazil in International Friendlies: Brazil won 6-2 at home, having scored six and conceded two. International Friendlies, 1 April brought a home meeting with Croatia; Brazil won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Brazil hosted France on 26 March (International Friendlies) and lost 1-2; their goals totalled one, compared with two conceded. Uruguay hosted Brazil (Copa America) on 7 July 2024. For Brazil, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed.
Morocco's previous five results comprised three wins and two draws. Their goal totals were 13 scored and 3 conceded, with no defeats. Norway were their latest opponents, at home on 7 June: a 1-1 draw; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Burundi on 26 May.
Playing at home against Norway (International Friendlies), Morocco finished 1-1 on 7 June. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 2 June: Morocco won 4-0 against Madagascar at home in International Friendlies, scoring four goals and allowing zero. Against Burundi in International Friendlies, Morocco scored five and conceded zero on 26 May; the at home result was 5-0. Morocco's at home game on 31 March (International Friendlies) ended 2-1 against Paraguay, with two goals for and one against. On 27 March, Ecuador faced Morocco in International Friendlies: Morocco drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one.
After the match
Brazil and Morocco drew 1-1 at MetLife Stadium, New York / New Jersey on 13 June 2026. Ismael Saibari opened the scoring in the 21st minute for Morocco, set up by Brahim Diaz, to make it 1-0. Vinicius Junior levelled it in the 32nd minute for Brazil, set up by Bruno Guimarães, to make it 1-1. Casemiro (37') and Roger Ibañez (43') were booked. Brazil: two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Brazil. five changes were recorded for Morocco.