Historically: 2 meetings from 1998, 4-2 on aggregate goals, 0 drawn. Their most recent was 2023, 1-2 in Friendlies. Set beside that history, the ratings stand at 1566 and 1571 — 5 points — for a 35.3% / 27.8% / 36.9% split.
Expected goals sit at 1.40 against 1.30. The match finished 1-1. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 5 points. A 1.6-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. A decisive result carries 72.2% against 27.8% for the draw. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. 45 places separate them in the global order. Only 5 rated matches back the Brazil figure. Neither side holds a component edge worth the name: scoring rates of 1.13 against 1.07, conceding rates of 0.90 against 0.92. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Worldwide they stand at 594 and 549 among 4,449 rated sides. 36.9% goes to Morocco, the model's lean. One sits in the top 12.3%, the other the top 13.4%. All three results are bunched inside 9.1 points. In absolute terms: Brazil 1.13/0.90, Morocco 1.07/0.92 on attack and defence.
Numbers from our own elo-poisson-v1 model, not a third-party stat feed. Analysis only.