An unusually heavy draw share here at 26.7%.
Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. The higher rating expects 55.2% of the points, the lower 44.8%. The two ratings differ by 36 points. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 8 and 7 matches. Bosnia-H. is ahead on each half — 1.01 to 0.87 in attack, 0.98 to 1.02 in defence. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. A decisive result carries 73.3% against 26.7% for the draw. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +1 and -35. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.6%. Neutral ground here, which removes the home-side bump from the calculation. A 15.1-point range top to bottom. The four component numbers read 1.01, 0.98, 0.87, 1.02. Bosnia-H. leads the distribution by 10.3 points over Qatar. Result on the day: 3-1. 41.8% goes to Bosnia-H., the model's lean. Ratings here are the model's current values, updated after full time. Goal expectation splits 1.39 to 1.15. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
Bosnia-H.'s previous five results comprised four draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 7 conceded, with no wins. Latest: a 4-1 defeat away to Switzerland on 18 June.
Against Switzerland in World Cup, Bosnia-H. scored one and conceded four on 18 June; the away from home result was 1-4. Bosnia-H.'s away from home game on 12 June (World Cup) ended 1-1 against Canada, with one goal for and one against. On 6 June, Panama faced Bosnia-H. in International Friendlies: Bosnia-H. drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. International Friendlies, 29 May brought a home meeting with FYR Macedonia; Bosnia-H. drew 0-0, a return of zero goals scored and zero conceded. Bosnia-H. hosted Netherlands on 19 November 2024 (UEFA Nations League) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded.
one point in two matches put Bosnia-H. 37th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
Qatar's previous five results comprised one win, two draws and two defeats. Their goal totals were 4 scored and 9 conceded, failing to score in three of those games. Latest: a 6-0 defeat away to Canada on 18 June.
Against Canada in World Cup, Qatar scored zero and conceded six on 18 June; the away from home result was 0-6. Qatar's at home game on 13 June (World Cup) ended 1-1 against Switzerland, with one goal for and one against. On 6 June, El Salvador faced Qatar in International Friendlies: Qatar drew 0-0 at home, having scored zero and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 28 May brought an away meeting with Rep. Of Ireland; Qatar lost 0-1, a return of zero goals scored and one conceded. Qatar visited Jordan on 10 February 2024 (AFC Asian Cup) and won 3-1; their goals totalled three, compared with one conceded.
one point in two matches put Qatar 39th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
After the match
Bosnia-H. beat Qatar 3-1 at Lumen Field, Seattle on 24 June 2026. Kerim Alajbegović opened the scoring in the 29th minute for Bosnia-H., set up by Ivan Bašić, to make it 1-0. Sultan Al Brake (an own goal) added to the tally in the 34th minute for Bosnia-H. to make it 2-0. Hassan Al Haydos pulled one back in the 42nd minute for Qatar, set up by Edmílson, to make it 1-2. With the 4th goal, Bosnia-H. extended the lead through Ermin Mahmic 80 minutes into the game, set up by Dennis Hadžikadunić, to make it 3-1. Ahmed Fathy (78') and Ermin Mahmic (82') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Bosnia-H. are 36 points stronger than Qatar. Bosnia-H. are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Qatar are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2024 AFC Asian Cup, the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 Gulf Cup of Nations. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.68 to 0.77. The card tally for Bosnia-H. was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Bosnia-H.. Ermin Mahmic entered for Bosnia-H. at 63 minutes and later scored in minute 80 and was booked. After coming on for Bosnia-H. in minute 63, Dennis Hadžikadunić provided an assist. The card tally for Qatar was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Qatar.