Neither component contradicts the other: Switzerland leads 1.09-1.07 forward and 0.85-0.98 back. On rating it is 1597 against 1496, which the model resolves to 51.9% / 24.5% / 23.6%.
They are 1,349 places apart on the global list. The gap between first and second outcome is 27.4 points, Switzerland ahead of the draw. Of the 4,449 teams carrying a rating, these two are 391th and 1740th. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-1 on 12.3%. Only 5 rated matches back the Canada figure. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The higher-percentile side clears the top 8.8%; the other the top 39.1%. 75.5% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Switzerland carries the largest share, 51.9%. Rating separation comes to 101 points. Between best and worst outcome there is 28.3 points of daylight. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Expected goals sit at 1.44 against 1.23. Result on the day: 2-1. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The four component numbers read 1.09, 0.85, 1.07, 0.98. Rounded, that is 1-1.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.