Neither component contradicts the other: Switzerland leads 1.29-1.01 forward and 0.71-0.86 back. On rating it is 1644 against 1511, which the model resolves to 56.7% / 23.3% / 20.0%.
Between them, the home side holds the higher rating. Rounded, that is 1-0. Every team starts at 1500; these two now sit at +144 and +11. Nothing concentrates: top scoreline 1-0 on 12.7%. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. The higher-rated side expects 68.3% of the points; the other side 31.7%. 76.7% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. Switzerland carries the largest share, 56.7%. Rating separation comes to 133 points. Between best and worst outcome there is 36.7 points of daylight. The gap between first and second outcome is 33.4 points, Switzerland ahead of the draw. Expected goals sit at 1.50 against 0.97. Result on the day: 2-1. Scorelines above 8%: 5. The four component numbers read 1.29, 0.71, 1.01, 0.86. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 15 and 8 rated matches respectively.
All of the above is elo-poisson-v1 output built from complete results. Not betting advice.
Match Report
Before the match
ten goals for and four against accompanied Switzerland's two wins and three draws across five outings, an unbeaten run. A 4-1 win at home to Bosnia-H. (18 June) was their most recent result.
Switzerland's at home game on 18 June (World Cup) ended 4-1 against Bosnia-H., with four goals for and one against. On 13 June, Qatar faced Switzerland in World Cup: Switzerland drew 1-1 away from home, having scored one and conceded one. International Friendlies, 6 June brought a home meeting with Australia; Switzerland drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Switzerland hosted Jordan on 31 May (International Friendlies) and won 4-1; their goals totalled four, compared with one conceded. Norway hosted Switzerland (International Friendlies) on 31 March. For Switzerland, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed.
Switzerland: 13th, four points, two matches in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
Canada: two wins and three draws over five games; ten goals scored, two conceded, keeping three clean sheets, unbeaten. Latest: a 6-0 win at home to Qatar on 18 June.
Against Qatar in World Cup, Canada scored six and conceded zero on 18 June; the at home result was 6-0. Canada's at home game on 12 June (World Cup) ended 1-1 against Bosnia-H., with one goal for and one against. On 5 June, Rep. Of Ireland faced Canada in International Friendlies: Canada drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one. International Friendlies, 2 June brought a home meeting with Uzbekistan; Canada won 2-0, a return of two goals scored and zero conceded. Canada hosted Tunisia on 31 March (International Friendlies) and drew 0-0; their goals totalled zero, compared with zero conceded.
four points in two matches put Canada 8th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
After the match
Switzerland edged past Canada 2-1 at BC Place, Vancouver on 24 June 2026. Ruben Vargas opened the scoring 46 minutes into the game for Switzerland, set up by Johan Manzambi, to make it 1-0. Johan Manzambi added to the tally 57 minutes into the game for Switzerland, set up by Breel Embolo, to make it 2-0. Promise Akinpelu pulled one back 76 minutes into the game for Canada, set up by Nathan-Dylan Saliba, to make it 1-2. Cyle Larin (32'), Granit Xhaka (32') and Liam Millar (87') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. 56.7% is Switzerland's winning probability here from current model ratings, alongside their recorded victory. Switzerland's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 1.11 to 1.66. one yellow card went to Switzerland. The substitution total for Switzerland was five. The card tally for Canada was two yellow cards. Canada made five changes. Liam Millar was booked following entry for Canada in the 58th minute. Promise Akinpelu, on in the 74th minute, scored in minute 76.