Qatar has 3 rated matches behind their rating — thin. The split reads 57.2% / 23.2% / 19.6%.
Neither component contradicts the other: Canada leads 1.07-0.91 forward and 0.98-1.25 back. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Point estimate: 1-1. Someone wins 76.8% of the time by this model. They have met once on record — 2022, 2-0 in Friendlies, which is too little history to weigh. Top 39.1% against top 91.0% on percentile. Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 9.8%. 73 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Between best and worst outcome there is 37.6 points of daylight. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Those ratings place them 1740th and 4049th worldwide, from a pool of 4,449. A 34.0-point margin separates the top two outcomes. 57.2% goes to Canada, the model's lean. It ended 6-0. Attack/defence pairs: 1.07/0.98 and 0.91/1.25. Qatar's side of that rests on 3 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. A 2,309-place difference in ranking. Expected goals 1.99-1.21.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.