Neither component contradicts the other: Canada leads 1.01-0.87 forward and 0.86-1.02 back. On rating it is 1511 against 1465, which the model resolves to 53.4% / 24.1% / 22.5%.
Flat distribution — 1-1 tops it at just 12.2%. 53.4% goes to Canada, the model's lean. Expected shares 65.5% against 34.5% on Elo. Attack/defence pairs: 1.01/0.86 and 0.87/1.02. A 29.3-point margin separates the top two outcomes. 46 points separate the two ratings — a moderate margin. Expected goals 1.53-1.01. It ended 6-0. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +11 and -35. They have met once on record — 2022, 2-0 in Friendlies, which is too little history to weigh. With 8 and 7 rated matches apiece, both numbers are on solid ground. Someone wins 75.9% of the time by this model. Between best and worst outcome there is 30.9 points of daylight. Higher rating: the home side. Point estimate: 1-1. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Canada were unbeaten in their last five games, with one win and four draws, scoring six goals and conceding four. On 12 June, Canada recorded a 1-1 draw hosting Bosnia-H..
12 June: Canada drew 1-1 against Bosnia-H. at home in World Cup, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Rep. Of Ireland in International Friendlies, Canada scored one and conceded one on 5 June; the at home result was 1-1. Canada's at home game on 2 June (International Friendlies) ended 2-0 against Uzbekistan, with two goals for and zero against. On 31 March, Tunisia faced Canada in International Friendlies: Canada drew 0-0 at home, having scored zero and conceded zero. International Friendlies, 28 March brought a home meeting with Iceland; Canada drew 2-2, a return of two goals scored and two conceded.
Canada: 21st, one point, one match in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
Qatar: two wins, two draws and one defeat over five games; seven goals scored, five conceded. Switzerland were their latest opponents, at home on 13 June: a 1-1 draw.
Against Switzerland in World Cup, Qatar scored one and conceded one on 13 June; the at home result was 1-1. Qatar's at home game on 6 June (International Friendlies) ended 0-0 against El Salvador, with zero goals for and zero against. On 28 May, Rep. Of Ireland faced Qatar in International Friendlies: Qatar lost 0-1 away from home, having scored zero and conceded one. AFC Asian Cup, 10 February 2024 brought an away meeting with Jordan; Qatar won 3-1, a return of three goals scored and one conceded. Qatar visited Iran on 7 February 2024 (AFC Asian Cup) and won 3-2; their goals totalled three, compared with two conceded.
Before kickoff, World Cup's results-based standings placed Qatar 21st after one match and one point.
After the match
Canada overwhelmed Qatar 6-0 at BC Place, Vancouver on 18 June 2026. Cyle Larin opened the scoring in the 16th minute for Canada to make it 1-0. Jonathan David added to the tally in the 29th minute for Canada to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Canada extended the lead through Jonathan David 48 minutes into the game to make it 3-0. Nathan-Dylan Saliba scored the 4th goal for Canada 64 minutes into the game as they extended the lead to make it 4-0. Canada extended the lead 75 minutes into the game; the match's 5th goal came through Mohamed Al-Mannai (an own goal) to make it 5-0. The 6th goal came in the 92nd minute from Jonathan David for Canada, who extended the lead to make it 6-0. Homam Ahmed (32') and Assim Madibo (51') were sent off. Derek Cornelius (9') and Ahmed Fathy (62') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Canada are 46 points stronger than Qatar. On current ratings the model puts Canada at around 1.53 gols in this pairing; they scored 6 here. Qatar are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2024 AFC Asian Cup, the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 Gulf Cup of Nations. Expected goals put the gap at 4.6 to 0.22. one yellow card went to Canada. Canada: five substitutions. Nathan-Dylan Saliba, on in the 57th minute, scored in minute 64. Qatar: one yellow card and two red cards. Qatar made five changes. Ahmed Fathy, on in the 46th minute, was booked. Canada kept their opponents scoreless.