Both components point the same way, toward Switzerland: 1.29 to 1.01 going forward, 0.71 to 0.98 going back. On rating it is 1644 against 1501, which the model resolves to 58.1% / 23.0% / 19.0%.
The single-scoreline output is 1-0. Expected goals 1.72-0.96. Switzerland holds a 35.1-point edge on the next outcome. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. 143 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. By expected share of the points: 69.5% and 30.5%. In absolute terms: Switzerland 1.29/0.71, Bosnia-H. 1.01/0.98 on attack and defence. Outcomes span 39.1 points. Final score: 4-1. No scoreline stands out; 1-0 only leads on 11.8%. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Most likely single result is Switzerland on 58.1%. Neither figure is thin: 15 and 8 matches respectively sit behind them. Someone wins 77.1% of the time by this model. From the 1500 baseline they currently stand at +144 and +1. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. The higher rating belongs to the home side.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
Switzerland came into the game with one win, three draws and one defeat from their last five outings, scoring nine goals and conceding seven. On 13 June, Switzerland recorded a 1-1 draw visiting Qatar; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Jordan on 31 May.
World Cup, 13 June brought an away meeting with Qatar; Switzerland drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. Switzerland hosted Australia on 6 June (International Friendlies) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Jordan travelled to face Switzerland (International Friendlies) on 31 May. For Switzerland, the score was 4-1: four goals scored, one allowed. 0-0 was Switzerland's result against Norway on 31 March (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Switzerland drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 27 March fixture (International Friendlies) paired Switzerland with Germany. Switzerland lost 3-4 at home, netting three goals while conceding four.
Switzerland stood 20th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with one point from one match.
Bosnia-H. arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording four draws and one defeat, scoring three goals and conceding ten. A 1-1 draw away to Canada (12 June) was their most recent result.
12 June: Bosnia-H. drew 1-1 against Canada away from home in World Cup, scoring one goal and allowing one. Against Panama in International Friendlies, Bosnia-H. scored one and conceded one on 6 June; the away from home result was 1-1. Bosnia-H.'s at home game on 29 May (International Friendlies) ended 0-0 against FYR Macedonia, with zero goals for and zero against. On 19 November 2024, Netherlands faced Bosnia-H. in UEFA Nations League: Bosnia-H. drew 1-1 at home, having scored one and conceded one. UEFA Nations League, 16 November 2024 brought an away meeting with Germany; Bosnia-H. lost 0-7, a return of zero goals scored and seven conceded.
Bosnia-H. stood 20th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with one point from one match.
After the match
Switzerland comfortably beat Bosnia-H. 4-1 at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles on 18 June 2026. Johan Manzambi opened the scoring 74 minutes into the game for Switzerland to make it 1-0. Ruben Vargas added to the tally late on, in the 84th minute for Switzerland, set up by Breel Embolo, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Switzerland extended the lead through Johan Manzambi late on, in the 90th minute, set up by Ruben Vargas, to make it 3-0. Ermin Mahmic got one back in the 93rd minute for Bosnia-H. to make it 1-3. Granit Xhaka scored the 5th goal for Switzerland from the penalty spot in the 97th minute as they extended the lead to make it 4-1. Tarik Muharemović (80') was sent off. Amar Dedić (59'), Edin Džeko (61') and Nico Elvedi (65') were booked. Every goal came after the interval. Switzerland's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 58.1% for a win in this pairing. On current ratings the model puts Switzerland at around 1.72 gols in this pairing; they scored 4 here. Switzerland's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Bosnia-H. are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 2.06 to 0.23. Switzerland picked up one yellow card. Switzerland: five substitutions. Johan Manzambi, on in the 71st minute, scored two times in minutes 74, 90. Ruben Vargas entered for Switzerland at 71 minutes and later scored in minute 84 and provided an assist. Bosnia-H. picked up two yellow cards and one red card. Bosnia-H.: five substitutions. After coming on for Bosnia-H. in minute 90, Ermin Mahmic scored in minute 93.