Small-sample warning: 3 matches for Qatar. Ratings 1423 and 1597, split 16.0% / 21.9% / 62.1%.
Distance between the ratings: 174 points, wide on this scale. First to second is a 40.2-point step, Switzerland over the draw. The match finished 1-1. 78.1% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 10.7% — not a strong call. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Its rounded call is 1-1. Global standing: 4049 and 391 of 4,449. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2018, 1-0 in Friendlies; not enough to lean on. The model's preferred outcome is Switzerland at 62.1%. On expected goals the model has it 1.05 against 1.84. Switzerland is ahead on each half — 1.09 to 0.91 in attack, 0.85 to 1.25 in defence. Qatar's number leans on a 3-match sample. In absolute terms: Qatar 0.91/1.25, Switzerland 1.09/0.85 on attack and defence. By share of the rated field: 8.8% and 91.0%. Scorelines above 8%: 4. 3,658 places separate them in the global order. Outcomes span 46.1 points. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.