A 179-point edge to Switzerland, which the model prices at 15.4% / 21.7% / 62.9%.
Distance between the ratings: 179 points, wide on this scale. Its rounded call is 0-1. The match finished 1-1. 78.3% of the probability sits on a decisive outcome. 0-1 leads the scorelines at 13.1% — not a strong call. The ratings above are current values, not a pre-match snapshot. Both figures rest on decent samples, 7 and 15 matches. Versus the 1500 seed: -35 and +144. The record shows a single previous meeting, 2018, 1-0 in Friendlies; not enough to lean on. The model's preferred outcome is Switzerland at 62.9%. On expected goals the model has it 0.83 against 1.78. Switzerland is ahead on each half — 1.29 to 0.87 in attack, 0.71 to 1.02 in defence. Neutral venue — the home-advantage term is set aside. In absolute terms: Qatar 0.87/1.02, Switzerland 1.29/0.71 on attack and defence. By expected share of the points: 26.3% and 73.7%. Scorelines above 8%: 4. The higher rating belongs to the away side. Outcomes span 47.5 points. First to second is a 41.2-point step, Switzerland over the draw.
Computed by elo-poisson-v1 from the whole corpus rather than republished. Analytical only.
Match Report
Before the match
Qatar's previous five results comprised two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal totals were 7 scored and 5 conceded. Latest: a 0-0 draw at home to El Salvador on 6 June.
Against El Salvador in International Friendlies, Qatar scored zero and conceded zero on 6 June; the at home result was 0-0. Qatar's away from home game on 28 May (International Friendlies) ended 0-1 against Rep. Of Ireland, with zero goals for and one against. On 10 February 2024, Jordan faced Qatar in AFC Asian Cup: Qatar won 3-1 away from home, having scored three and conceded one. AFC Asian Cup, 7 February 2024 brought an away meeting with Iran; Qatar won 3-2, a return of three goals scored and two conceded. Qatar hosted Uzbekistan on 3 February 2024 (AFC Asian Cup) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded.
Switzerland: one win, two draws and two defeats over five games; ten goals scored, nine conceded. Latest: a 1-1 draw at home to Australia on 6 June; their biggest win in that spell was 4-1 at home to Jordan on 31 May.
Switzerland hosted Australia on 6 June (International Friendlies) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Jordan travelled to face Switzerland (International Friendlies) on 31 May. For Switzerland, the score was 4-1: four goals scored, one allowed. 0-0 was Switzerland's result against Norway on 31 March (International Friendlies), playing away from home; Switzerland drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 27 March fixture (International Friendlies) paired Switzerland with Germany. Switzerland lost 3-4 at home, netting three goals while conceding four. Playing away from home against Spain (UEFA Nations League), Switzerland finished 2-3 on 18 November 2024. Their score comprised two goals, against three from the opposition.
After the match
Qatar and Switzerland drew 1-1 at Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area on 13 June 2026. Breel Embolo opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 17th minute for Switzerland to make it 1-0. Boualem Khoukhi levelled it in the 94th minute for Qatar to make it 1-1. Mahmoud Abunada (16'), Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam (23') and Denis Zakaria (42') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Switzerland 179 points stronger than Qatar. Qatar are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2024 AFC Asian Cup, the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 Gulf Cup of Nations. Switzerland's current recorded form ends with 4 consecutive wins in the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 0.6 to 3.2. The card tally for Qatar was two yellow cards. five changes were recorded for Qatar. The card tally for Switzerland was one yellow card. five changes were recorded for Switzerland.