Rated 1511 and 1501, these two produce a 47.9% / 25.4% / 26.7% split. There is no trade-off to weigh: Canada scores at the higher rate (1.01 to 1.01) and concedes at the lower (0.86 to 0.98).
Canada carries the largest share, 47.9%. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. On the rating scale the distance between them is narrow, at 10 points. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 60.6% to 39.4%. Scorelines above 8%: 4. xG: 1.48 to 1.17. The four component numbers read 1.01, 0.86, 1.01, 0.98. Its rounded call is 1-1. Final score: 1-1. The model gives 74.6% to someone winning. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +11 and +1. The home side is rated higher. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 12.2% leads, but only just. Both ratings rest on a reasonable base — 8 and 8 rated matches respectively. The distribution runs from 47.9% down to 25.4%. Canada sits 21.2 points above the next most likely result.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Canada: two wins and three draws over five games; six goals scored, three conceded, keeping three clean sheets, unbeaten. Latest: a 1-1 draw at home to Rep. Of Ireland on 5 June.
Playing at home against Rep. Of Ireland (International Friendlies), Canada finished 1-1 on 5 June. Their score comprised one goal, against one from the opposition. 2 June: Canada won 2-0 against Uzbekistan at home in International Friendlies, scoring two goals and allowing zero. Against Tunisia in International Friendlies, Canada scored zero and conceded zero on 31 March; the at home result was 0-0. Canada's at home game on 28 March (International Friendlies) ended 2-2 against Iceland, with two goals for and two against. On 18 January, Guatemala faced Canada in International Friendlies: Canada won 1-0 at home, having scored one and conceded zero.
two goals for and 11 against accompanied Bosnia-H.'s three draws and two defeats across five outings, failing to score in three of those games, a winless run. On 6 June, Bosnia-H. recorded a 1-1 draw visiting Panama.
Panama hosted Bosnia-H. (International Friendlies) on 6 June. For Bosnia-H., the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 0-0 was Bosnia-H.'s result against FYR Macedonia on 29 May (International Friendlies), playing at home; Bosnia-H. drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 19 November 2024 fixture (UEFA Nations League) paired Bosnia-H. with Netherlands. Bosnia-H. drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one. Playing away from home against Germany (UEFA Nations League), Bosnia-H. finished 0-7 on 16 November 2024. Their score comprised zero goals, against seven from the opposition. 14 October 2024: Bosnia-H. lost 0-2 against Hungary at home in UEFA Nations League, scoring zero goals and allowing two.
After the match
Canada and Bosnia-H. drew 1-1 at BMO Field, Toronto on 12 June 2026. Jovo Lukić opened the scoring in the 21st minute for Bosnia-H., set up by Sead Kolašinac, to make it 1-0. Cyle Larin levelled it 78 minutes into the game for Canada, set up by Promise Akinpelu, to make it 1-1. Alistair Johnston (11'), Ermedin Demirovic (45'), Jovo Lukić (45'), Luc De Fougerolles (53') and Nikola Katić (90') were booked. Bosnia-H. are unbeaten in the latest 4 matches of their recorded form in the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. The card tally for Canada was two yellow cards. Canada made five changes. Promise Akinpelu provided an assist following entry for Canada in the 61st minute. Cyle Larin, on in the 76th minute, scored in minute 78. three yellow cards went to Bosnia-H.. The substitution total for Bosnia-H. was five.