Rated 1496 and 1471, these two produce a 50.1% / 24.9% / 25.0% split. There is no trade-off to weigh: Canada scores at the higher rate (1.07 to 0.98) and concedes at the lower (0.98 to 1.10).
Canada carries the largest share, 50.1%. These figures stand as of today; the model updates them at full time. On the rating scale the distance between them is moderate, at 25 points. By percentile the separation is top 39.1% to top 68.6%. Scorelines above 8%: 3. xG: 1.76 to 1.30. The four component numbers read 1.07, 0.98, 0.98, 1.10. Canada sits 25.1 points above the next most likely result. Final score: 1-1. The model gives 75.1% to someone winning. Those ratings place them 1740th and 3052th worldwide, from a pool of 4,449. The ranking gap is 1,312 positions. The scoreline spread is even — 1-1 on 10.7% leads, but only just. Its rounded call is 1-1. The distribution runs from 50.1% down to 24.9%. Only 4 rated matches back the Bosnia-H. figure.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.