3 rated matches is a thin base for Korea Republic; the model still returns 35.0% / 27.7% / 37.3%.
By share of the rated field: 64.4% and 72.7%. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 13.3%. Win-or-lose totals 72.3%; the draw takes the rest. 369 places separate them in the global order. Ratings sit 8 apart. Korea Republic's side of that rests on 3 rated matches, so treat it as provisional. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Expected goals 1.11-1.15. The model's preferred outcome is Korea Republic at 37.3%. Those ratings place them 3234th and 2865th worldwide, from a pool of 4,449. A 2.3-point gap between the top two is inside the noise. Rounded, that is 1-1. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. Raw profiles are 0.86 and 0.94 against 0.91 and 0.96. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. Top to bottom the spread is only 9.6 points. Neither side holds a component edge worth the name: scoring rates of 0.86 against 0.91, conceding rates of 0.94 against 0.96. The tie closed out 1-0.
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