An unusually heavy draw share here at 26.6%.
By expected share of the points: 55.6% and 44.4%. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 13.1%. Win-or-lose totals 73.4%; the draw takes the rest. The higher rating belongs to the home side. Ratings sit 39 apart. No home advantage is applied — the tie is played at a neutral venue. The model keeps one current rating per side, so these include this match. Expected goals 1.28-1.05. The model's preferred outcome is South Africa at 42.3%. Relative to the 1500 seed that every rating begins at: +22 and -17. Rounded, that is 1-1. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 7 and 7 matches. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Raw profiles are 1.05 and 0.82 against 0.95 and 0.90. The gap between first and second outcome is 11.2 points, South Africa ahead of Korea Republic. Outcomes span 15.7 points. There is no trade-off to weigh: South Africa scores at the higher rate (1.05 to 0.95) and concedes at the lower (0.82 to 0.90). The tie closed out 1-0.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
South Africa arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording three draws and two defeats, scoring three goals and conceding six. On 18 June, South Africa recorded a 1-1 draw visiting Czechia.
World Cup, 18 June brought an away meeting with Czechia; South Africa drew 1-1, a return of one goal scored and one conceded. South Africa visited Mexico on 11 June (World Cup) and lost 0-2; their goals totalled zero, compared with two conceded. Jamaica hosted South Africa (International Friendlies) on 6 June. For South Africa, the score was 1-1: one goal scored, one allowed. 0-0 was South Africa's result against Nicaragua on 29 May (International Friendlies), playing at home; South Africa drew, with zero scored to zero conceded. The 31 March fixture (International Friendlies) paired South Africa with Panama. South Africa lost 1-2 at home, netting one goal while conceding two.
South Africa: 37th, one point, two matches in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
eight goals for and three against accompanied Korea Republic's three wins and two defeats across five outings. A 1-0 defeat away to Mexico (19 June) was their most recent result; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Trinidad and Tobago on 31 May.
The 19 June fixture (World Cup) paired Korea Republic with Mexico. Korea Republic lost 0-1 away from home, netting zero goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Czechia (World Cup), Korea Republic finished 2-1 on 12 June. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 4 June: Korea Republic won 1-0 against El Salvador at home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing zero. Against Trinidad and Tobago in International Friendlies, Korea Republic scored five and conceded zero on 31 May; the at home result was 5-0. Korea Republic's away from home game on 31 March (International Friendlies) ended 0-1 against Austria, with zero goals for and one against.
Korea Republic stood 22nd in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with three points from two matches.
After the match
South Africa edged past Korea Republic 1-0 at Estadio BBVA, Monterrey on 25 June 2026. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: South Africa are 39 points stronger than Korea Republic. Korea Republic: three substitutions.