The rating gap is 164 points here, and the split follows at 16.9% / 22.3% / 60.9%.
A 3,637-place difference in ranking. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. The model gives 77.8% to someone winning. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Raw profiles are 0.88 and 1.12 against 1.13 and 0.87. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.4%. Result on the day: 0-3. Top 11.6% against top 93.4% on percentile. They occupy positions 4154 and 517 in a 4,449-team ranking. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.02 and 1.71. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 1-1. 60.9% goes to Mexico, the model's lean. Distance between the ratings: 164 points, wide on this scale. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. A 38.6-point margin separates the top two outcomes. Mexico's number leans on a 5-match sample. Most and least likely outcomes are 44.0 points apart. Mexico holds both halves of the profile — 1.13 against 0.88 for scoring, 0.87 against 1.12 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.