The rating gap is 160 points here, and the split follows at 17.3% / 22.4% / 60.3%.
Higher rating: the away side. A 37.9-point margin separates the top two outcomes. The model gives 77.6% to someone winning. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. Raw profiles are 0.76 and 1.28 against 0.96 and 0.97. Spread thin across outcomes, 0-1 highest at 11.7%. Result on the day: 0-3. Expected shares 28.5% against 71.5% on Elo. Against the 1500 start, the ratings run -118 and +42. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.00 and 1.66. Both figures rest on decent samples, 10 and 9 matches. 60.3% goes to Mexico, the model's lean. Distance between the ratings: 160 points, wide on this scale. 4 of the listed scorelines reach 8% or better. Taken to a single scoreline the model lands on 0-1. Played on neutral ground, so no home bump applies. Most and least likely outcomes are 43.0 points apart. Mexico holds both halves of the profile — 0.96 against 0.76 for scoring, 0.97 against 1.28 for conceding, where the lower number is the better one.
Produced in-house by elo-poisson-v1 over full match history. Analysis, not tips.
Match Report
Before the match
Czechia: three wins, one draw and one defeat over five games; nine goals scored, six conceded. Latest: a 1-1 draw at home to South Africa on 18 June.
Czechia hosted South Africa on 18 June (World Cup) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Korea Republic hosted Czechia (World Cup) on 12 June. For Czechia, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 3-1 was Czechia's result against Guatemala on 5 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; Czechia won, with three scored to one conceded. The 31 May fixture (International Friendlies) paired Czechia with Kosovo. Czechia won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Georgia (UEFA Nations League), Czechia finished 2-1 on 19 November 2024. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition.
one point in two matches put Czechia 33rd in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
Mexico: five wins over five games; 11 goals scored, one conceded, keeping four clean sheets, unbeaten. Latest: a 1-0 win at home to Korea Republic on 19 June; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to Serbia on 5 June.
Mexico hosted Korea Republic on 19 June (World Cup) and won 1-0; their goals totalled one, compared with zero conceded. South Africa travelled to face Mexico (World Cup) on 11 June. For Mexico, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed. 5-1 was Mexico's result against Serbia on 5 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; Mexico won, with five scored to one conceded. The 31 May fixture (International Friendlies) paired Mexico with Australia. Mexico won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing at home against Ghana (International Friendlies), Mexico finished 2-0 on 23 May. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition.
six points in two matches put Mexico 10th in the pre-match results-based World Cup standings.
After the match
Mexico comfortably beat Czechia 3-0 at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City on 25 June 2026. Mateo Chávez opened the scoring 55 minutes into the game for Mexico, set up by Luis Romo, to make it 1-0. Julián Quiñones added to the tally 61 minutes into the game for Mexico, set up by Jorge Sánchez, to make it 2-0. With the 3rd goal, Mexico extended the lead through Álvaro Fidalgo in the 94th minute, set up by Roberto Alvarado, to make it 3-0. Edson Álvarez (63') was booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have Mexico 160 points stronger than Czechia. Every goal came after the interval. Mexico's victory matches the model's current-rating preference: 60.3% for a win in this pairing. Czechia's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in the 2024 UEFA Nations League, the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Expected goals put the gap at 0.53 to 1.74. Czechia: five substitutions. Mexico picked up one yellow card. The substitution total for Mexico was five. Álvaro Fidalgo, on in the 72nd minute, scored in minute 94. Mexico kept their opponents scoreless.