Historically: 4 meetings from 1998, 10-6 on aggregate goals, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2025, 2-2 in Friendlies. Currently 1575 against 1475 — a 61.0% / 22.2% / 16.8% split.
Most and least likely outcomes are 44.2 points apart. The two ratings differ by 100 points. Final score: 1-0. Raw profiles are 1.13 and 0.87 against 0.91 and 0.96. Win-or-lose totals 77.8%; the draw takes the rest. Neither component contradicts the other: Mexico leads 1.13-0.91 forward and 0.87-0.96 back. Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. Korea Republic's number leans on a 3-match sample. Top of the distribution: Mexico, 61.0%. As a single number the model says 1-1. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.61 and 1.06. Scorelines above 8%: 4. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 11.8%. In the global table that is 517 and 2865 out of 4,449 rated teams. The ranking gap is 2,348 positions. By percentile the separation is top 11.6% to top 64.4%. The leading outcome clears the second by 38.8 points.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.