On record: 4 meetings from 1998, 10-6 on aggregate, 1 drawn. Their most recent was 2025, 2-2 in Friendlies. Currently 1542 against 1483 — a 55.3% / 23.6% / 21.0% split.
Most and least likely outcomes are 34.3 points apart. The two ratings differ by 59 points. Final score: 1-0. Raw profiles are 0.96 and 0.97 against 0.95 and 0.90. Win-or-lose totals 76.3%; the draw takes the rest. Mexico has the better scoring rate (0.96) and Korea Republic the better defensive one (0.90). Note the ratings are live, not frozen at kickoff. The leading outcome clears the second by 31.7 points. Top of the distribution: Mexico, 55.3%. Sample sizes behind the two numbers are 9 and 7 matches. The model's expected-goals figures are 1.29 and 1.24. Scorelines above 8%: 5. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 12.8%. Against the 1500 rating every team starts from, they sit at +42 and -17. The home side is rated higher. On the Elo curve, expected shares run 67.1% to 32.9%. As a single number the model says 1-1.
Our own elo-poisson-v1 figures — analytical, not advisory.
Match Report
Before the match
Mexico were unbeaten in their last five games, with four wins and one draw, scoring 11 goals and conceding two, keeping three clean sheets. On 11 June, Mexico recorded a 2-0 win hosting South Africa; their biggest win in that spell was 5-1 at home to Serbia on 5 June.
South Africa travelled to face Mexico (World Cup) on 11 June. For Mexico, the score was 2-0: two goals scored, zero allowed. 5-1 was Mexico's result against Serbia on 5 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; Mexico won, with five scored to one conceded. The 31 May fixture (International Friendlies) paired Mexico with Australia. Mexico won 1-0 at home, netting one goal while conceding zero. Playing at home against Ghana (International Friendlies), Mexico finished 2-0 on 23 May. Their score comprised two goals, against zero from the opposition. 1 April: Mexico drew 1-1 against Belgium at home in International Friendlies, scoring one goal and allowing one.
Mexico: 12th, three points, one match in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
Korea Republic came into the game with three wins and two defeats from their last five outings, scoring eight goals and conceding six. On 12 June, Korea Republic recorded a 2-1 win hosting Czechia; their biggest win in that spell was 5-0 at home to Trinidad and Tobago on 31 May.
The 12 June fixture (World Cup) paired Korea Republic with Czechia. Korea Republic won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against El Salvador (International Friendlies), Korea Republic finished 1-0 on 4 June. Their score comprised one goal, against zero from the opposition. 31 May: Korea Republic won 5-0 against Trinidad and Tobago at home in International Friendlies, scoring five goals and allowing zero. Against Austria in International Friendlies, Korea Republic scored zero and conceded one on 31 March; the away from home result was 0-1. Korea Republic's at home game on 28 March (International Friendlies) ended 0-4 against Ivory Coast, with zero goals for and four against.
Korea Republic: 14th, three points, one match in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
The last recorded meeting was a 2-1 away win for Mexico on 23 June 2018.
After the match
Mexico edged past Korea Republic 1-0 at Estadio Akron, Guadalajara on 19 June 2026. Luis Romo opened the scoring 50 minutes into the game for Mexico to make it 1-0. Kang-in Lee (4') and Seung-Ho Paik (58') were booked. On our current Elo ratings the gap is a modest one: Mexico are 59 points stronger than Korea Republic. Mexico: 55.3% to win this pairing in the model on current ratings; the match ended in their favour. By expected goals the balance of play sat the other way: 0.53 to 0.91. five changes were recorded for Mexico. Korea Republic picked up two yellow cards. The substitution total for Korea Republic was five. Mexico finished with a clean sheet.