Rated 1382 and 1522, these two produce a 19.4% / 23.1% / 57.5% split. Both components point the same way, toward South Africa: 1.05 to 0.76 going forward, 0.82 to 1.28 going back.
Versus the 1500 seed: -118 and +22. The model's preferred outcome is South Africa at 57.5%. 4 scorelines clear 8% individually. The higher rating expects 69.1% of the points, the lower 30.9%. The four component numbers read 0.76, 1.28, 1.05, 0.82. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. The away side is rated higher. Spread thin across outcomes, 0-1 highest at 12.7%. A 140-point difference on the rating scale. Neither figure is thin: 10 and 7 matches respectively sit behind them. The three results cover 38.1 points. Its rounded call is 0-1. South Africa leads the distribution by 34.4 points over the draw. The model's expected-goals figures are 0.84 and 1.82. Someone wins 76.9% of the time by this model. The match finished 1-1. The quoted ratings already absorb this match.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.
Match Report
Before the match
eight goals for and five against accompanied Czechia's three wins, one draw and one defeat across five outings. A 2-1 defeat away to Korea Republic (12 June) was their most recent result.
Korea Republic hosted Czechia (World Cup) on 12 June. For Czechia, the score was 1-2: one goal scored, two allowed. 3-1 was Czechia's result against Guatemala on 5 June (International Friendlies), playing at home; Czechia won, with three scored to one conceded. The 31 May fixture (International Friendlies) paired Czechia with Kosovo. Czechia won 2-1 at home, netting two goals while conceding one. Playing at home against Georgia (UEFA Nations League), Czechia finished 2-1 on 19 November 2024. Their score comprised two goals, against one from the opposition. 16 November 2024: Czechia drew 0-0 against Albania away from home in UEFA Nations League, scoring zero goals and allowing zero.
Czechia stood 34th in the results-based World Cup table before kickoff, with zero points from one match.
South Africa arrived without a win in their last five outings, recording three draws and two defeats, scoring three goals and conceding six. On 11 June, South Africa recorded a 2-0 defeat visiting Mexico.
World Cup, 11 June brought an away meeting with Mexico; South Africa lost 0-2, a return of zero goals scored and two conceded. South Africa visited Jamaica on 6 June (International Friendlies) and drew 1-1; their goals totalled one, compared with one conceded. Nicaragua travelled to face South Africa (International Friendlies) on 29 May. For South Africa, the score was 0-0: zero goals scored, zero allowed. 1-2 was South Africa's result against Panama on 31 March (International Friendlies), playing at home; South Africa lost, with one scored to two conceded. The 27 March fixture (International Friendlies) paired South Africa with Panama. South Africa drew 1-1 at home, netting one goal while conceding one.
South Africa: 42nd, zero points, one match in the calculated World Cup standings at kickoff.
After the match
Czechia and South Africa drew 1-1 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta on 18 June 2026. Michal Sadílek opened the scoring inside the first 6 minutes for Czechia, set up by Alexandr Sojka, to make it 1-0. Teboho Mokoena levelled it from the penalty spot late on, in the 83rd minute for South Africa to make it 1-1. Teboho Mokoena (33'), Thalente Mbatha (40') and Ladislav Krejčí (75') were booked. The rating gap is a clear one: our current Elo ratings have South Africa 140 points stronger than Czechia. Czechia's current recorded form ends with 5 consecutive defeats in the 2024 UEFA Nations League, the 2026 International Friendlies, the 2026 World Cup and the 2026 UEFA Nations League. Czechia: one yellow card. Czechia made five changes. South Africa: two yellow cards. three changes were recorded for South Africa.