Neither win dominates this distribution — the draw takes 26.0% against 29.0% and 45.0%.
The model's expected-goals figures are 1.11 and 1.30. The quoted ratings already absorb this match. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. Its rounded call is 1-1. Someone wins 74.0% of the time by this model. Global standing: 4154 and 3234 of 4,449. The four component numbers read 0.88, 1.12, 0.86, 0.94. Honours split: 0.88 forward for Czechia, 0.94 back for South Africa. One sits in the top 72.7%, the other the top 93.4%. South Africa leads the distribution by 16.0 points over Czechia. The match finished 1-1. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. South Africa: only 4 rated matches. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 13.0%. The model's preferred outcome is South Africa at 45.0%. A 56-point difference on the rating scale. The three results cover 19.0 points. The ranking gap is 920 positions.
Our elo-poisson-v1 rating generated these numbers. They are analysis and not advice to bet.