Before the numbers, the caveat: 3 rated matches behind Korea Republic. On that base the model returns 1475 against 1411 and a 46.3% / 25.8% / 28.0% split.
These are live ratings — this fixture is already reflected in them. The four component numbers read 0.91, 0.96, 0.88, 1.12. 5 scorelines clear 8% individually. The venue is neutral, so the usual home adjustment is zeroed out. The rating gap itself is 64 points, which is moderate by the model's standards. Neither component contradicts the other: Korea Republic leads 0.91-0.88 forward and 0.96-1.12 back. Spread thin across outcomes, 1-1 highest at 12.7%. The underlying goal expectation is 1.37 for Korea Republic, 1.13 for Czechia. One sits in the top 64.4%, the other the top 93.4%. The Korea Republic figure is drawn from 3 rated matches — thin enough that one result would move it. Reduced to one result that is 1-1. Win-or-lose totals 74.3%; the draw takes the rest. Ranked against every team the model rates, they sit 2865th and 4154th of 4,449. Korea Republic leads the distribution by 18.3 points over Czechia. Final score: 2-1. A 1,289-place difference in ranking. The model's preferred outcome is Korea Republic at 46.3%.
elo-poisson-v1 output, computed in-house. Not betting advice.