A 62.0% / 22.0% / 16.0% split off ratings of 1575 and 1467. Mexico is ahead on each half — 1.13 to 0.86 in attack, 0.87 to 0.94 in defence.
South Africa's number leans on a 4-match sample. Mexico carries the largest share, 62.0%. A 46.0-point range top to bottom. In absolute terms: Mexico 1.13/0.87, South Africa 0.86/0.94 on attack and defence. Scorelines above 8%: 4. One prior meeting exists: 2010, 1-1 in World Cup. A single result carries no predictive load. The single-scoreline output is 1-1. Worldwide they stand at 517 and 3234 among 4,449 rated sides. 108 points separate the two ratings — a wide margin. Win-or-lose totals 78.0%; the draw takes the rest. Mexico leads the distribution by 40.0 points over the draw. On expected goals the model has it 1.58 against 1.01. 1-1 leads the scorelines at 12.0% — not a strong call. Top 11.6% against top 72.7% on percentile. Final score: 2-0. Values shown are current rather than as-at-kickoff. They are 2,717 places apart on the global list.
Figures are our own elo-poisson-v1 output, not a provider feed. Analysis, not betting advice.