Start with the recent run. A 3-2-5 return from 10 recorded matches gives 1.1 points per game, with 7 scored against 11. Behind it the model carries them at 1576.
In our record of their last 12 games across competitions, the best sequence without defeat was 3. 14 rated matches sit behind the current figure of 1576. In our record of their last 12 games across competitions, 33% of their sample — 4 matches — has finished without conceding. That is worth 52.4% of points against field-average opposition. Looking at their last 12 matches on record across competitions, 2 home wins and 2 away ones, from 6 and 6 respectively. Benchmarked to the 74-team field they come out 17 points clear of average, scores 0.08 below it in attack, concedes 0.01 below it in defence. The five newest recorded results break down as 2 wins and 3 defeats. The components behind it are 0.81 for scoring and 0.88 for goals conceded, where a lower second figure is the stronger one. The gap to average is carried mainly on the defensive side.
Trend data has started collecting; there are too few points to show a curve yet.
In-house elo-poisson-v1 numbers, derived from the complete result corpus.